October Wrap-up

On this high holiday I have some minor links and musings to present.

First, from Reason magazine, Ronald Bailey in “Our Intangible Riches” interviews World Bank economist Kirk Hamilton about his team’s investigation into wealth and capital. The team’s results are published in Where is the Wealth of Nations?, available from the World Bank site. In short, the wealth of nations lies primarily in intangible capital; the education of the populace and the quality of social institutions.

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Observations suggest inflation pressures on the working classes continue to grow. Consumer staples giants Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, and Colgate-Palmolive have all announced the need to pass along price increases in oil and raw materials. Consumers should expect to see prices increase from 3-12%. Health, education, and childcare costs also continue to rise. Low official inflation numbers also permitted the Fed to slip another knife into an already wounded dollar.

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I finished reading Iain Bank’s The Algebraist the other week. It’s not a Culture novel, though still quite fun. I also picked up a copy of Sandworms of Dune, the conclusion to Frank Herbert’s famous cycle. As expected, only in the treatment of Duncan Idaho is Frank Herbert’s touch clearly visible. The writing style was pedestrian and the story had all the subtlety and depth of a Michael Bay film.

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Finally, we had a small earthquake yesterday. Nice rolling waves, almost like being on a boat.

Spigots

I’ve now heard from two sources that mortgage lending in the SF Bay area is effectively dead. As the second put it:

Jumbo loan processing in the Bay Area, as far as they know, is completely halted. 20% down will NOT make the cut. It is more like 50% down and FICO score of above 750 plus full doc, and the bank may still think about it.

– OO, on Patrick.Net

Now that that spigot has been tightened down, there still remains the question of how to clean up after the excesses of the past few years. This morning’s sudden news of a cut in the discount rate has been taken by many as a sign of capitulation by the Fed, as were its repo operations the week prior. I think this conclusion is premature.
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Bare Sterns

Introduction & Recent News

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”
— Warren Buffett

This post is on recent developments in the finance world. I’ll start things off with a small chart, courtesy of Credit Suisse, then explain its connection to imploding hedge funds.

Credit Suisse 2007 ARM reset schedule

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Economic Update

It’s been a little over six months since my last related post, and a few weeks since I realized this, hence the update. As various reports come in, I’m gratified that they are mostly in line with expectations. The weakness in housing continues, and the effects are spreading to other parts of the economy. Downturns in consumer credit and sales confirm my expectations of a poor holiday season. Roubini is expecting the ‘official’ recession to begin in Q1 or Q2 2007, and his recent forecasts on GDP growth have been squarely on target.

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Bad At Math

For those paying attention, Ernst & Young published a report stating that China’s banks held up to $911 billion in nonperforming loans (NPLs). The official estimate is $164 billion. The Chinese banks, at least two of which are preparing for Hong Kong IPOs, reacted with expected anger, calling the figures “severely distorted”, “severely wrong”, and “absurd”. Shortly thereafter, Ernst and Young withdrew the report and apologized for its “erroneous” publication.

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