It’s been a little over six months since my last related post, and a few weeks since I realized this, hence the update. As various reports come in, I’m gratified that they are mostly in line with expectations. The weakness in housing continues, and the effects are spreading to other parts of the economy. Downturns in consumer credit and sales confirm my expectations of a poor holiday season. Roubini is expecting the ‘official’ recession to begin in Q1 or Q2 2007, and his recent forecasts on GDP growth have been squarely on target.

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